Decreased Sunspot Activity Could Lead to a New Ice Age

Decreased Sunspot Activity Could Lead to a New Ice Age

By James Dennett

When conducting research, it is always important to consider the accuracy of primary-source results when they are presented in secondary-source formats. Although much of the information will remain the same, the opinions that are often presented by the secondary source authors can introduce an unwanted bias into the data. Additionally, the claims made in secondary source articles can not always be taken at face value, since the purpose of a secondary source article is to put the scientific data into a form that the general public will understand, and as such, the data can often be twisted or biased to make the article more appealing.

The piece of primary literature I reviewed for this assignment is a study concerning decreased sunspot activity and its effects on climate, which was conducted and published by Matthew J. Penn and William Livingston at the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona. This paper, titled Long Term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields detailed how the pair discovered the decrease in recent sunspot activity, as well as the predicted implications of this occurrence, specifically focusing on possible climate changes.

The secondary source that went along with this study is an article titled Evidence of Solar Scientists Raises Fear of Imminent Ice Age, which was written by John O’Sullivan and published on the website Suite101.com.

The study by Penn and Livingston, which was published on September 3, 2010, discusses how there have been significant drops in both the strength and the quantity of sunspots appearing on the sun’s surface in recent years, up to decreases of 40%. One slight limitation found in the paper is the fact that they fail to offer any hypotheses as to why the sunspot formation rate has dropped recently, but this limitation is insignificant because the main focus of the study is not why the decreases in sunspot strength and quantity are happening, but rather what the long-term effects of this occurrence will be.

Both Penn & Livingston and O’Sullivan agree that the drop in sunspot activity could have several ramifications for the weather and climate on Earth. Normally sunspots increase and decrease in strength in a generally predictable cycle that lasts approximately eleven years, which has been shown to correlate with average yearly temperature differences on Earth (Penn & Livingston 2010). However, the last low point of sunspot activity occurred in late 2006, and now, four years later, the strength of the sunspots has yet to show any significant increase, which the authors agree could potentially signal the beginnings of a “mini ice age” (O’Sullivan 2010).

Fig. 1: Extrapolated total magnetic field strength of sunspots over time

However, the authors of the separate articles disagree as to what will happen to the sunspots in the future. Penn & Livingston, after tabulating their data, inserted a negative correlation trend line on a graph depicting the total magnetic field strength of sunspots as a function of time, projected up to the year 2025, as in Figure 1.

According to Penn & Livingston’s prediction, if the decrease in sunspot activity is regarded as a continuing linear decrease, as opposed to an unusual anomaly, by the year 2025, sunspot activity will have completely disappeared, which could be a large warning of an imminent ice age (Penn & Livingston 2010).

Conversely, O’Sullivan suggests that although the current decrease in sunspot strength is undoubtedly unusual, it is most likely a small irregularity in the 11-year sunspot cycle, rather than a steady linear decrease, as suggested by Penn & Livingston (O'Sullivan 2010). This hypothesis is consistent with past sunspot disappearances, which have turned out to only be minor inconsistencies in the sunspot cycle.

Another difference between the primary and secondary sources is the belief that the authors have in the data that was collected. Penn & Livingston, despite being the ones who collected and organized the data, discuss how there is a good chance that their predictions and conclusions are not actually true, but merely the best explanation they could make for the data that they had (Penn & Livingston 2010). This is an excellent display of scientific integrity on their part, since they are explaining in their primary paper how there is a good chance that they are mistaken and their predictions will not come true, presumably with the intention of preventing anyone who reads the paper from making any radical assumptions.

Conversely, in the secondary source article written by O’Sullivan, the data taken from Penn & Livingston’s experiment is regarded as being irrefutable evidence that an ice age is in fact going to happen sometime in the next 20-30 years (O’Sullivan 2010). As mentioned earlier, the claims made in secondary source articles can not immediately be taken at face value since the author will usually slightly alter some aspect of the original study to make it more appealing to the general public. Additionally, the authors of secondary source articles are often not as highly educated in the specific field of science as the primary source authors are, and as such, they can sometimes misconstrue certain aspects of the paper, and take it in a different manner than the scientists originally intended, which again can result in the general public being misinformed as to the results of the scientific study.

To conclude, although data taken from secondary source articles, such as John O'Sullivan's recent article, Evidence of Solar Scientists Raise Fears of Imminent Ice Age, is often laid out in an easy-to-understand manner, it can not always be taken at face value, since the author of the article may have changed some aspects of the research to make it more appealing for the public. However, data and observations taken straight from the primary source, such as Penn & Livingston's study, Long Term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields, although slightly harder to understand for the average person, will almost always offer the scientific observations and predictions of the scientists, who are often much more educated in their field than the secondary-source authors.

References:

Matthew J. Penn & William Livingston. Long Term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields. National Solar Observatory. September 3, 2010.

John O'Sullivan. Evidence of Solar Scientists Raise Fears of Imminent Ice Age. Suite101.com. September 22, 2010.