A recent study through the department of environment and planning at the University of Aveiro in Portugal in junction with professors at the Ciudad Universitaria, have uncovered the consequences of climate change on air quality. The two concentrations measured, ozone levels and Particulate Matter (PM), were shown to significantly increase in the next one hundred years. These increases are only going to decrease air quality for humans and animals to breathe, and in effect cause increasingly severe health effects.
The method through which predictions of the future’s temperature and air quality were done was through climate scenarios with a high temporal and special resolution. State of the art modeling systems were used, such as the HadAM3P and MM5-CHIMERE. The Hardey Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) is capable of simulating the present average temperatures of Europe, which gives confidence that it can also simulate the future temperatures. This model was used against the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modeling system to see how the changes in temperature are related to changes in air quality.
The study focused on air quality in the continent of Europe and more specifically Portugal. The reference year of the project was 1990 and the forecast year was set to 2100, spanning a little over one hundred years.
Air quality is measured by concentration and distribution of pollutants in the atmosphere. Ozone and Particulate Matter concentrations were chosen to be studied because of their relation to air quality. Health, crop production and nature are all negatively affected by excess ozone in the air. It directly affects greenhouse gases globally. Particulate Matter is connected with health problems and ecosystem damage.
The results of the study showed increases in ozone in the atmosphere as a result of an increase in temperatures. Because ozone is made from sunlight mixing with fumes from fuel powered machines and heat, the warmer the earth gets, the more ozone that will be produced. High levels of ozone are also found to be associated with large amounts of water vapor and solar radiation. The highest changes in ozone concentration were over central Europe and lowest over the ocean. Accordingly, the greatest temperature increases were found in Galacia, France and the United Kingdom.
Particulate matter is the amount of tiny solid particles
and pollutants suspended in the air we breathe. It was found that humidity is a key indicator of the PM because the levels are higher in dry conditions. PM is directly affected by the amount of wind and stagnant conditions in a region because it is concerned with moving around or stationary particles in the air. The results of the models show that the future will hold increases in PM over land and decreases in PM over bodies of water.It is important to recognize that the predictions of the future are also dependant on social and political structures. In addition, by 2100 the population is speculated to increase up to 15.1 billion people. An increase in population will most likely increase pollutants in the air and subsequently the ozone and particulate matter.
Average daily and monthly levels of PM and ozone were speculated as well. Based on these results, it can be hypothesized that their levels will peak at the end of the twenty first century.
The time of year when ozone, PM and consequently air quality are the most affected are during the summer months of July, August and September. These months have the most photochemical production, and thus are hotter than the other months. This is why smog is such a health factor at this time of year. As the temperatures continue to rise, and thus the air quality continues to worsen, smog will be an even greater problem.
These results show that in the near future, air quality will continue to diminish and pose an even more hazardous threat to the populations’ health and wellbeing. The study states that governments and policy makers need to give great concern to this global problem. They need to work with environmental engineers and scientists to prevent the air quality from getting worse and lessen the affects of the current air quality problems.
References
Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Solman, S., Miranda, A.I. and Borrego, C. 2010. Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century, with special reference to Portugal. Environmental Science and Policy, 13(6): 445-458.
"Climate Change and Your Child's Health." Canadian Institute of Child Health. 30 Apr. 2003. Web. 15 Oct. 2010.
Link
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VP6-506HPPC-1&_user=1067211&_coverDate=10%2F31%2F2010&_rdoc=2&_fmt=high&_orig=browse&_origin=browse&_zone=rslt_list_item&_srch=doc-info(%23toc%236198%232010%23999869993%232253780%23FLA%23display%23Volume)&_cdi=6198&_sort=d&_docanchor=&_ct=11&_acct=C000051237&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=1067211&md5=b790cb1d477f644dc937709b9a382974&searchtype=a
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